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Will War Veterans Dominate Ukraine’s Post-War Leadership?.

HomeWill War Veterans Dominate Ukraine’s Post-War Leadership?

Will War Veterans Dominate Ukraine’s Post-War Leadership?

As Ukraine looks toward rebuilding after the war, a new generation of leaders is emerging: veterans who have earned the nation’s respect in the fight against Russia’s aggression.

By Kateryna Odarchenko

With trust in state institutions wavering, the former fighters represent the promise of change. They offer the prospect of restored faith in Ukraine’s governance and the hope of a more stable and democratic future.

Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine has surged to an unprecedented 95%, reflecting the deep admiration and respect Ukrainians hold for those who have defended the country.

War veterans, who are expected to number more than five million post-war — more than 10% of the population — are poised to play a significant role in the country’s reconstruction. Their potential influence in Ukraine’s future cannot be overstated.

A poll last year showed that 78% of Ukrainians would welcome the formation of a political party led by war veterans, and 37% supported the idea of veterans running for office as part of existing political parties. This strong public support underscores the desire for a new kind of leadership, one that is seen as both credible and committed to the nation’s well-being.

The trust in Ukraine’s Armed Forces has been consistently high, beginning in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea and invaded the Donbas region. By 2015, 55% of Ukrainians expressed faith in the armed forces. Recognizing this shift, political parties began to attract war veterans to politics. One prominent example was Nadiya Savchenko, a Ukrainian pilot who fought in the east as part of the Aidar volunteer battalion. Captured by Russian militants in 2014, she was elected to the Ukrainian parliament from the Batkivshchyna (Motherland) party while still imprisoned. Her political career faltered after her release in 2016, and she returned to the battlefield.

In contrast, other veterans have found lasting success in politics, such as Roman Kostenko, a former intelligence officer with the SBU, Ukraine’s main intelligence agency. In 2014, Kostenko and a group of Ukrainian soldiers defended an airport in Eastern Ukraine from a much larger Russian-led force.

Elected to parliament in 2019, Kostenko continues to serve both as a politician and a soldier, fighting against Russian forces since 2022. Despite the strong trust in the military, faith in other state institutions remains fragile, presenting a challenge that must be addressed when the fighting stops. While 54% of Ukrainians continue to trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the numbers drop significantly when it comes to other branches of government. Only 29% of Ukrainians expressed trust in parliament, and an alarming 68% distrust in the judiciary, according to a survey published in May.

More than half of Ukrainians lack confidence in anti-corruption bodies like the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAZK), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).

This pervasive lack of confidence, rooted in years of systemic corruption and oligarchic influence, underscores the urgent need for a new leadership that can restore confidence in the state. The distrust of political parties is particularly telling, with 77% of Ukrainians expressing skepticism toward these institutions.

This lack of belief in traditional political structures highlights the opportunity for war veterans, who are seen as having a strong moral authority due to their service and sacrifice. Their leadership might be instrumental in transforming Ukraine into a state characterized by transparency, accountability and a renewed commitment to the rule of law, many hope.

That said, those who may emerge are so far unknown. While support for former army chief Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was high when he held the job, it has fallen back since his appointment as ambassador to the UK. His successor, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, is also popular, as is Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence.

Corruption remains a significant issue in Ukraine, with 51% of voters identifying it as the country’s top concern, even more than Russian aggression, which 46% of respondents cited. This deep-seated problem has historically been exploited by oligarchs, who have wielded their wealth and media influence to shape political outcomes.

But while the emergence of veterans in the political arena offers an opportunity for a break from the past, their rise to power must also be carefully balanced. The strength of democratic institutions and Ukraine’s existing checks and balances, such as an independent judiciary, the role of civil society, and international oversight from bodies like the European Union (EU) and NATO, will be crucial in reinforcing the foundations of the state.

Additionally, their authority would need to be checked by parliamentary accountability, the free press, and Ukraine’s vibrant anti-corruption organizations. Ensuring that veterans remain accountable will be key to avoiding the emergence of unchecked power and maintaining the democratic progress Ukraine has fought so hard to achieve.

As the country prepares for post-war reconstruction, the question of leadership is paramount. The involvement of war veterans might mark a significant step toward restoring public trust and ensuring Ukraine’s future is defined by the rule of law, democratic principles, and a commitment to the well-being of its citizens.

That, anyway, is a widespread hope among ordinary Ukrainians.

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